Event Report: Japanese Politics Today: The LDP in Decline and Xenophobia on the Rise?
On November 10th, 2025, the Centre for the Study of Global Japan hosted the event “Japanese Politics Today: the LDP in Decline and Xenophobia on the Rise?” with Ko Maeda, Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas. Given recent shifts in Japanese politics, Professor Maeda provided timely insights about the LDP’s historical dominance, Sanae Takaichi’s election as Prime Minister, and whether the rise of right-wing populist parties is fueled by xenophobia in Japan. This event was moderated by Phillip Lipscy, Director of CSGJ and Richard Charles Lee Director of the Asian Institute.
Reflecting on recent developments, Professor Maeda began with an overview of Japanese politics in the current context. In the House of Councillors election of July 2025, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition lost its majority, following its previous loss in the lower house in 2024. Pressures for Prime Minister Ishiba to step down culminated in his resignation on September 7th, triggering an LDP leadership race that was won by Sanae Takaichi, who became Japan’s first female prime minister. Komeito, the LDP’s long-standing coalition partner for 26 years, abruptly announced its departure from the coalition. The LDP entered a loose alliance with the Ishin party. Maeda also highlighted Prime Minister Takaichi’s background: raised in a non-political family, she entered politics as an independent before joining the LDP in 1996. She is known as a conservative voice within the party and widely regarded as the protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Maeda then focused on the long-term transformation of the LDP. He explained that the party has historically functioned as a “big tent” party, reflecting diverse policy perspectives to appeal to a broad voter base and maintain power. Yet, following the loss to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009–2012, Maeda argued that the LDP increasingly relied on ideology to appeal to voters; particularly, Prime Minister Abe appealed to the nationalist, conservative support base of his party. Maeda presented survey evidence illustrating how Abe enjoyed strong support among conservative voters, while Ishiba was not popular among that same group.
Furthermore, Maeda addressed the rise of new right-wing populist parties and rhetoric in Japanese politics. The Sanseito party made notable gains in the upper house election, winning 12.6% of the proportional representation (PR) votes. Their use of the “Japanese First” campaign slogan was reported internationally as an indication of rising right-wing populism in Japan. Other minor parties like the Conservative Party of Japan and NHK Party emphasised similar xenophobic rhetoric, exploiting anxieties about Japan’s rapidly growing foreign worker population, which was intended to address demographic decline and labour shortages. Despite this, Maeda presented survey data suggesting that public opinion about foreign workers is nuanced. While many expressed concerns that foreigners would cause problems due to cultural differences, the majority recognised the necessity of foreign labour to alleviate the labour shortage, and many disagreed that Japanese people’s jobs would be lost in the process. Thus, Maeda concluded that Sanseito’s rise does not necessarily imply that xenophobia is on the rise in Japan; rather, Sanseito received votes from those who wanted to punish the LDP.
Lastly, Professor Maeda explored the challenges ahead for Prime Minister Takaichi. Despite her strong approval ratings (as of November 2025), Maeda argued that she will need to carefully balance moderate swing voters and conservative loyalists so as not to alienate both sides. He noted that the loss of Komeito votes in single-member districts could hurt LDP candidates in future elections.
Following the presentation, there was an engaging question and answer period with audience members, with questions ranging from topics like populism amongst young Japanese men, Komeito’s departure from the coalition, and the Ishin party. We would like to extend our gratitude to Professor Ko Maeda for his insightful talk and the audience for their participation.
