Event Report: Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?
On November 4, 2025, the Centre for the Study of Global Japan hosted the virtual seminar “Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?” This event was jointly hosted with the 21st Century Japan Politics and Society Initiative at Indiana University, Harvard Program on US-Japan Relations, and the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series. Moderated by Phillip Lipscy and Adam Liff, the event featured a distinguished panel of experts: Daniel Smith (University of Pennsylvania), Amy Catalinac (New York University), Christina Davis (Harvard University), and Saori Katada (University of Southern California). The session provided a multi-dimensional analysis of the early days of Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s administration and its implications for Japan’s domestic and foreign policy trajectories. Among other topics, the seminar covered trade relations between the US and Japan, energy and climate policy, and regional security issues.
The seminar was convened just two weeks after the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) election of Takaichi Sanae as party president and Japan’s first female Prime Minister. The panelists began by situating this development within the context of domestic political volatility, characterized by the collapse of the long-standing LDP-Komeito coalition and the LDP’s partnership with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin). The panelists explored whether Takaichi’s leadership represents a shift toward a more conservative policy agenda and how "Sanaenomics" might address Japan’s pressing economic challenges.
Dan Smith analyzed Takaichi’s ascendance as a potential instance of “glass cliff” dynamics, noting that while she successfully broke the glass ceiling, she inherited leadership at a moment of significant LDP vulnerability. He highlighted that women’s representation in the Lower House has reached a record 16%—though it remains notably below the global average of 27%—and noted that Takaichi's success will hinge on her electoral success and the longevity of her tenure. Amy Catalinac followed by examining the electoral risks of the LDP’s new realignment with Ishin. She noted that while Ishin shares more common ground with the LDP on security issues, the loss of Komeito’s sophisticated "ground game" and urban voter mobilization may leave LDP incumbents electorally exposed.
Christina Davis discussed the status of trade negotiations between the US and Japan under the Trump administration. Thus far, Takaichi has successfully leveraged her conservative credentials and close relationship with former prime minister Abe Shinzo to maintain the September 2025 bilateral US-Japan trade agreement. However, much remains undetermined, such as the implementation of promised $550 billion dollar investments by Japan in the United States. Takaichi will likely seek to further deepen her personal relationship with Trump to strengthen the US-Japan relationship.
Saori Katada outlined Takaichi’s "offensive" economic security strategy, which prioritizes the development of "strategic indispensability" in critical technologies like semiconductors and AI as well as a more active fiscal policy. Phillip Lipscy discussed the environmental and energy policy of the new administration. Takaichi has expressed skepticism toward renewable energy such as solar due to Japan’s reliance on Chinese technology. Japan’s administration is leaning towards traditional carbon energy sources, particularly LNG, but will also seek expansion of nuclear power. Despite Japan’s slow adoption of renewable energy, the country has important strengths in underlying technologies such as perovskite solar cells.
Adam Liff laid out the state of Japan’s security policies. Takaichi has sought to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by the end of fiscal year 2025—two years ahead of the original schedule. He noted that the severing of ties with Komeito, which has traditionally espoused a pacifist ideology, may create new opportunities for the LDP in the security domain.
Following the formal remarks, the floor was opened to the audience for a question-and-answer session. Attendees raised questions on topics such as the potential for progressive social reforms under Takaichi, the management of Japan’s national debt amidst rising military expenditures, and the long-term viability of the LDP-Ishin partnership. We would like to thank the panelists for sharing their timely insights and the Asian Institute, Indiana University 21st Century Japan Politics and Society Initiative, Harvard Program on US-Japan Relations, and the Japanese Politics Online Seminar Series for their cooperation on this event.
