The Taiwan Tinderbox: The Island-Nation at the Center of the New Cold War

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 shocked the world and overturned assumptions that large-scale conventional war was inconceivable in the twenty-first century. On the other side of the planet, democratic Taiwan faces the rising threat of a military takeover by China a conflict whose impact on the international community would be catastrophic.

Renowned Taiwan expert and former intelligence officer J. Michael Cole explains how this Pacific nation has become a tinderbox that could ignite a full-scale global conflict. Drawing on unparalleled access to Taiwanese government sources and two decades of on-the-ground observation, he explores the root causes of the conflict between Taiwan and China - from the identity politics that make "peaceful unification" inconceivable, to the rise of Xi Jinping, the most powerful and authoritarian Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. With in-depth analysis of how the war in Europe is influencing preparations by Beijing, Taipei, and Washington for a potential cross-Strait confrontation, The Taiwan Tinderbox is an impassioned plea for the defense of Taiwan as a priority for the international community and the future of democracy.

 

 

J. Michael Cole is a Taipei-based Senior Non-Resident Fellow with the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C., the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa, and the Taiwan Hub at the University of Nottingham. He is also a Research Fellow and Executive Editor at the Prospect Foundation and a strategic consultant for governments and the private sector. Until May 2024, he served as Senior Advisor on Countering Foreign Authoritarian Influence with the International Republican Institute (IRI). He previously was editor in chief of Thinking Taiwan, founded Taiwan Sentinel, and served as editor at large for the Taiwan Democracy Bulletin.

He was deputy news editor at the Taipei Times from 2010 to 2013 and an editor from 2006 to 2010. Before moving to Taiwan in 2005, he worked as an intelligence officer with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS). His writing has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Wall Street Journal, South China Morning Post, Nikkei Asia, National Review, Christian Science Monitor, World Politics Review, Jane’s publications, the Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, National Post, China Brief, Lowy Interpreter, Huffington Post, and others. His books include Insidious Power, Cross-Strait Relations Since 2016, and The Taiwan Tinderbox (Polity, 2025). He is a regular commentator on CBS, CNN, VOA, CBC, the BBC, and Al Jazeera.

Born in Quebec City, Canada, Cole holds a Master’s in War Studies from the Royal Military College of Canada, the International Diploma in Humanitarian Assistance (IDHA), and the CX-99 Peacekeeping Diploma.

 

Lynette Ong is Distinguished Professor of Chinese Politics at the University of Toronto, and Director of China Governance Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. She is also a nonresident Senior Fellow at the Asia Society, and the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. She is the author of three books, including Outsourcing Repression: Everyday State Power in Contemporary China (Oxford UP, 2022). Her publications have appeared in leading journals, namely Perspectives on Politics, Comparative Politics, China Quarterly, China Journal, and outlets, such as Foreign Affairs, Journal of Democracy, Economist, Washington Post, South China Morning Post, and Globe and Mail. Her research has won multiple accolades from APSA, ISA, ASA, and CPSA. She is also a recipient of the SSHRC Impact Award.