Ukraine Rises: Understanding Democratic Resistance and Resilience in Wartime Ukraine (What Does the Data Actually Say?)

This lecture is keynote lecture for the International Graduate Student Symposium in Ukrainian Studies: New Perspectives in Ukrainian Studies: Transnational, Transcultural, and Translocal Insights.

 

Ordinary Ukrainians have proven to be the remarkable secret weapon against Russia’s autocratic war of aggression. Analysts thought Ukraine would fold in 3 days or a maximum of two weeks. Instead, even before Ukraine received military aid it stood strong, survived an onslaught by the largest army in Europe and pushed back Russia from the centre of its country within weeks. Since this time Ukrainians have liberated large cities in the east and south and show a – for some surprising -ability to resist all while maintain their devotion to democracy. Ukraine What underpins ordinary citizens’ civilian engagement in the war effort? Is there social cohesion in Ukraine? How do they view their politicians and what are the prospects for post-war elections? Taken together are Ukrainians displaying democratic resilience even in the face of extensive war trauma? And finally, what do we know about civilian resistance under Russian autocratic occupation? Professor Onuch a world leading expert on Ukrainian comparative politics, will answer these questions and present highlights from extensive empirical research based on 25 original wartime surveys (both cross-sectional and panel data) collected as part of three projects she lead/co-lead UCEPS, MOBILISEproject.com, and IBIFukraine.com and observational data as part of the DataForUkraine project. She will be drawing on two academic papers but will make the presentation, data, and findings accessible to all audiences.

 

Olga Onuch (DPhil Oxon, 2011) is Professor (Chair) in Comparative and Ukrainian Politics at the University of Manchester (UoM), making Onuch the first-ever holder of a Full Professorship in ‘Ukrainian Politics’ in the world. She is the author of Mapping Mass Mobilisation and The Zelensky Effect.  Onuch is an internationally leading scholar of comparative Ukrainian and more broadly central and east European (CEE) and Latin American (LA) politics. She is particularly well regarded for her work on democratic engagement, quality, resilience, backsliding, and democratic duty and civic identity. Thus, her research combines themes from comparative politics, political behaviour, and public opinion on and citizen engagement in geopolitics and international relations. In a recent series of works she has examined the pull and push factors associated with support for stronger relations with autocratic [Russia] and democratic [EU] powers in central and eastern Europe (Poland, Ukraine and Belarus) and Latin America (Argentina). Professor Onuch joined UoM in 2014, after holding research posts at the University of Toronto (Munk School of Global Affairs 2010-2011), the University of Oxford (St. Antony’s, Nuffield, OSGA & DPIR 2011-2014), and Harvard University (HURI, 2013-2014). Since 2014, in addition to her post at UoM, Prof. Onuch has been: an Associate Member (Politics) of Nuffield College at the University of Oxford (2014-2021), a Fellow at the Davis Center at Harvard University (2017), a Visiting Professor at Universidad Di Tella (2019-2020), and a Senior Research Associate at CERES, Munk School at the University of Toronto (2021). Since 2023, she has been a Visiting Professor by invitation at College d’Europe Nation in Warsaw. Onuch’s research on Ukraine has resulted in her consulting government agencies, ministries, and policymakers in Canada, Ukraine, the UK, and the US. Professor Onuch also has worked for international non-governmental and intergovernmental institutions including the UNDP (NYC HQ), The World Bank (IBRD in Kyiv), OSCE, OECD, and OSF. In 2022 Onuch founded and chaired the Ukraine Hub UK initiave and hosted the fist Conference of Ukrainian Students in the UK. Since 2024, she is the co-founder and co-chair of the British Association of the Study of Ukraine.

 

The Symposium is generously supported by the Canadian Foundation for Ukrainian Studies - Michael and Daria Kowalsky Fund; Department of Poltiical Science; Public History Lab; the Chair in European Intellectual History; Centre for European and Eurasian Studies and the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.