Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with all-cause mortality in United States

Abstract

A complex mix of factors explains the decline in adult all-cause mortality in the United States over the past century. Throughout the century, advances in social policies, infrastructure, and health care have all played an important contributing role in this decline. Yet the declining trend has oscillated over time, with different patterns also emerging by gender and race/ethnicity. Only limited research thus far has focused on the role of climate factors, especially with respect to large-scale Atlantic Oceanic variability through the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This paper presents an analysis of the association of AMO phases with all-cause mortality in the United States over the past century. The findings point to divergent impacts based on gender and race, with males and Black populations experiencing higher (βBlack = 1.21 versus βWhite = 0.39) all-cause mortality during negative phases of the AMO, indicative of cooler-than-normal North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. These findings suggest the importance and need for further research and analyses to explore the impact of climate patterns on health and mortality outcomes.