The IPL newsletter: Volume 24, Issue 493

October 15, 2023

News from the IPL

IPL SPEAKER SERIES

The Silk Road of Science

November 30, 2023 | 4:30PM - 6:30PM, Boardroom at the Observatory, Munk School, 315 Bloor Street W. Toronto, ON

Christopher Esposito, Postdoctoral Fellow, Anderson School of Management, UCLA

Dr. Esposito develops a new framework to study the development and autonomy of national scientific enterprises. The method applies machine learning models to author information on 4.4 million scientific articles involving international collaboration to identify the project leaders (as opposed to the supporting actors) of each article. Aggregating leaders to their countries-of-residence allows the authors to determine the hierarchical position of power of each country in the global collaboration network. They use their framework to analyze recent changes in the hierarchical position of Chinese science. They begin by focusing on the hierarchical nature of collaborations between Chinese and U.S. scientists, and find that China substantially narrowed its gap behind the U.S. in scientific leadership between 1995 and 2021. Extending this trend, they predict that China will reach parity with the U.S. in terms of scientific leadership in 2033. Next, they show that China is achieving scientific leadership more quickly in other parts of the world. Delving into administrative documents, they uncover how China is extending the reach of its scientific enterprise beyond its territorial borders by investing in and training young scientists in regions that have been relatively neglected by Western science, particularly in Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. As a consequence, China now enjoys a strong leadership position in collaborations with scientists from these regions, and engages scholars from these regions to produce research that advances China’s own strategic interests. They conclude that the narrowing of the China-U.S. leadership gap and the strong leadership position China has established in much of Asia and Africa indicate that China’s scientific enterprise is sophisticated and territorially distributed. As a consequence, policymakers in the U.S. and other Western countries have less leverage in affecting China’s scientific development than is commonly believed.

RESEARCH

Does Subsidized Housing Facilitate More Sustainable Commute Patterns? Insights From Canadian Metropolitan Areas

Skye Collishaw, Markus Moos & Tara Vinodrai, Housing Policy Debate
Housing has become increasingly unaffordable, particularly in amenity-rich and transit-accessible areas. In this paper, the authors conduct an empirical analysis to investigate the relationship between living in subsidized housing and commuting patterns (mode and distance) in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver. The article finds that compared to otherwise similar individuals, those in subsidized dwellings have shorter and less auto-oriented commutes at statistically significant levels. The paper positions the discussion on subsidized housing in the broader context of the relationship between housing and sustainability, and within specific metropolitan geographies and histories of housing policies. In combination with prior research, the findings provide support for policies that promote investment in subsidized housing near transit as an affordability and sustainability strategy, particularly benefiting low-income renters.

Editor's Pick

Mind the Gap: Compensation Disparity Between Canadian and American Technology Workers

Vivian Li, Mahmehr Hamza & Anusha Arif, The Dais
This study examines compensation as a key component in Canada' ability to attract and retain top tech talent. The study examines the prevailing narrative of fierce competition from US-based companies, who can afford to out-bid Canadian tech companies in compensation offers. The report combines reliable data sources on tech pay in both countries, adjusting for a host of factors, including purchasing power, cost of living, and compositional components. The authors show that the tech pay gap is present, is large, but is not simple. Specifically, tech workers in the US were paid 46 percent more than tech workers in Canada (equivalent to almost $40,000 more).

 

Cities & Regions

Aligning smart specialisation with transformative innovation policy

Alasdair Reid, Fred Steward & Michal Miedzinski, Publications Office of the European Union
The report provides guidance on applying a mission-oriented approach to smart specialisation strategies (S3) to address societal challenges and achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Challenge-led missions are systemic frameworks that help align S3 with ambitious societal goals, and provide strategic direction to the implementation of policy instruments and projects mobilised through S3. The report focuses on areas relevant to mission implementation, including framing challenge-led missions, designing policy mix for missions, developing concrete practises to support mission implementation, and adapting the monitoring and evaluation system. The authors propose mission-oriented roadmapping framework to improve the coherence and directionality of policy instruments and processes mobilised through missions. The report was prepared in close cooperation with policy makers from the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade responsible for the Czech national S3 strategy. The publication is aimed at policymakers in Europe and beyond who are responsible for designing and implementing innovation policies that address sustainability challenges and goals such as the SDGs

Statistics

OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators

OECD
The OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) are the key reference OECD publication and database for the latest international statistics on R&D --drawing on the OECD R&D statistics database compiled with contributions from OECD members and other selected economies-- and other selected key STI indicators. MSTI is published twice each year, in March and September. Based on data reporting patterns by countries to the OECD and review procedures, the March edition revises previous data and contains the most timely but provisional aggregate indicators. The indicators in the September edition typically draw on data confirmed by countries as final as well as more disaggregated indicators reviewed by the Secretariat over the year. The September edition is also characterised by more complete reporting of indicators on Government Budgets for R&D by OECD member countries. This release also includes the statistical brief with highlights from the latest MSTI data.

Firm-size wage gaps and hierarchy: Evidence from Canada

Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada
This study investigates the role of hierarchy in explaining the wage differential between large and small firms in Canada. The paper uses the confidential-use files of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) from 2016 to 2022 and exploit the mini-panels form to control for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that the Canadian employer size‑wage effects for managers are approximately twice those for non-managers, which is consistent with the results of prior studies for other countries. Managers who move from a small to a large firm see an earnings increase of 20%, twice the estimated size-wage differential of non-managers (11%). The results also demonstrate that low‑skill workers moving from a small to a large firm have an earnings increase of 5.3%, which is significantly lower than high-skill workers (14.1%). Those results support the role of the hierarchy in explaining an important part of the size-wage effect for Canadian workers.

OECD
This document reports on the final output of the OECD microBeRD+ project. Drawing on the outcomes of previous work, this study presents new evidence on the impact of business R&D support policies – tax incentives and direct forms of support – on business R&D investment (R&D input additionality) and the innovation and economic performance of firms (R&D output additionality). The report also provides an exploratory analysis of R&D spillovers.

Innovation Policy

Mission Impossible: The Influence of Incumbent Industries on Mission-Oriented Innovation Policy Targeting Carbon Lock-in

Sara Hastings-Simon and Eliot Tretter, University of Calgary, The School of Public Policy
This paper explores how mission-oriented innovation potentially impacts and is impacted by incumbent industries and describes how in the case of Alberta’s fossil-fuel industry, regional incumbents influenced the establishment of a mission they saw as a direct threat to their market. For example, advancing in-situ production from the oil sands happened only after the industry saw its development as market rewarding. It suggests like other examples that any policy that would be market destroying is unlikely to succeed.

The Pathway to Industrial Decarbonization Commercial Liftoff

US Department of Energy
This post announces the recent release of new Pathways to Commercial Liftoff reports focusing on the opportunities and challenges that lie in achieving industrial decarbonization and implementing virtual power plants (VPPs). The Liftoff series first launched in March 2023 to provide the private sector and other industry partners a valuable, engagement-driven resource on how technologies can reach full scale deployment. Both industrial decarbonization and VPPs are crucial to reducing carbon emissions, improving the resilience of our energy systems, and achieving President Biden’s ambitious goals of 100% clean electricity by 2035 and a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.

Policy Digest

The Low-Carbon Playbook: Policies to foster Alberta’s competitiveness in a decarbonizing world

 Brendan Frank, Adam Sweet, Bentley Allan, Clean Prosperity and the Transition Accelerator
This report calculates where Alberta lags the US on incentives for low-carbon investment. The incentive gaps are calculated for low-carbon fuels (blue ammonia, green hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel), carbon management (cement with CCUS, direct air capture), and electric (natural gas with CCUS, solar, wind, advanced nuclear). However, the authors note that new policy tools can help Alberta close the “bankable gap” — the difference between investment incentives in the US and Alberta that are clear ex-ante, like investment tax credits and production tax credits.

The report recommends strengthening Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) regulation system using financial instruments called carbon contracts for difference (CCfDs) to help close the gap. A CCfD is like an insurance policy on the future value of carbon credits. CCfDs give firms and investors the confidence to make big investments in decarbonization, knowing that their carbon-credit revenues are guaranteed.

The authors make the following policy recommendations:

1. Make TIER a bankable asset for more low-carbon projects.

Lack of certainty about the future value of TIER credits is holding up final investment decisions on numerous shovel-ready projects. Financial instruments called carbon contracts for difference (CCfDs) offer a solution, acting as insurance on the future value of carbon credits. CCfDs could fully close the incentive gap for a number of project types. Implemented correctly, CCfDs are low-cost, present minimal financial risk to the government, and can even offer financial upside. The federal government announced intentions to consult on a broad-based program of CCfDs in the 2023 federal budget, though no formal consultation process has begun. The report notes the following recommendations for the Alberta government:
A. Bring CCfDs to the TIER market — either by actively partnering on a federal program, creating a made-in-Alberta version, or a combination of both.
B. Publish average prices for credits traded under TIER to improve overall market transparency and as a prerequisite to a broad-based CCfD program.
C. Design new high-performance benchmarks in TIER for emerging sectors.
D. Define the carbon-price path for TIER beyond 2030, building on the strong price path established in Alberta’s Emissions Reduction and Energy Development (ERED) Plan.

2. Apply 100% of present and future TIER revenues to support further decarbonization.
Currently, a portion of TIER revenues are diverted to the province’s General Revenue Fund to assist with deficit reduction. This arrangement should be reconsidered in light of Alberta’s strengthened fiscal position. Complemented with a modern industrial strategy, this change would help maximize TIER’s ability to drive new investments.

3. Develop a comprehensive low-carbon industrial strategy based on the principles in
Alberta’s ERED Plan that targets high-priority sectors.

A modern industrial strategy must go beyond tax credits and contracts for difference. Alberta’s industrial strategy should build on the strengths of the ERED Plan and Emissions Reduction Alberta (ERA)’s Technology Roadmap, and TIER can be the centrepiece — but it will require additional elements. First, Alberta should establish new mechanisms for close coordination with industry, Indigenous communities, and labour; joint establishment of sectoral economic targets; and detailed analysis to identify and address supply chain-specific bottlenecks, align policies, and calibrate incentives. Each sector is unique, and will require different policy tools. It takes careful work to get things right. Deep analysis of the opportunities and market conditions in priority sectors should be co-developed with stakeholders. This work should be supported by rigorous, third-party analysis. Alberta can also leverage the federal ITCs by offering targeted, calibrated support to key sectors. Delivered swiftly, a strategic mix of ITCs, PTCs, and CCfDs embedded in an overarching industrial strategy can get the most out of Alberta’s competitive assets and help the province thrive in a decarbonizing world.

Events

EVENTS

 

2023 Desmond Morton Research Excellence Lecture

Thursday, November 30, 2023, 1-3 pm (Lecture: 1-2 pm | Reception: 2-3 pm), Maanjiwe nendamowinan MN-3230, UTM
Register for the 2023 Desmond Morton Research Excellence Lecture! The Annual Desmond Morton Research Excellence Award recognizes outstanding achievement in research and scholarly activity by faculty members of the University of Toronto Mississauga. This year's recipient is Professor David Wolfe from the Department of Political Science. 

Wick #11, PhD Workshop in Economics of Innovation, Complexity, and Knowledge

December 13-14, 2023, the Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin, Italy.
This workshop is organized by students of the Vilfredo Pareto Doctoral Program in Economics - University of Turinjointly with Brick, Collegio Carlo Alberto and INET-YSI. The aim of the workshop is to bring together young researchers from different disciplines and provide them with an opportunity to discuss their works. The main topics of the workshop broadly fall on the Economics of Knowledge and Innovation, Science and Complexity. The event will feature keynote contributions from Prof. Tom Broekel (University of Stavanger Business School), Prof. Stan Metcalfe (University of Manchester) and Prof. Reinhilde Veugelers (KULeuven, Bruegel, PIIE). The application deadline is October 10th.

GeoInno 2024

January 10th – 12th, 2024, The University of Manchester, UK
The Manchester Institute of Innovation Research at the Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, is organising the 7th Geography of Innovation Conference. The Geography of Innovation Conference provides a forum for discussion to scholars interested in scientific, policy and strategic issues concerning the spatial dimension of innovation activities. In line with the six previous editions of the conference, held in Saint Etienne (France) in 2012, Utrecht (Netherlands) in 2014, Toulouse (France) in 2016, in Barcelona (Spain) in 2018, in Stavanger (Norway) in 2020, and most recently in 2022 in Milan (Italy), the main objective of this event is to bring together some of the world’s leading scholars from a variety of disciplines ranging from economic geography and regional science, to economics and management science, sociology and network theory, and political and planning sciences. You can read more about the conference themes and scope on the Call for Papers page.

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This newsletter is prepared by Travis Southin.
Project manager is David A. Wolfe