The IPL newsletter: Volume 25, Issue 520

February 3, 2025

News from the IPL

Video: Prosperity's Path: A Blueprint for Canada's Future

In the fall of 2024 IPL Co-Director Dan Breznitzauthored a special five-part series Prosperity’s Path, published in The Globe and Mail. The series explores the critical factors shaping Canada's prosperity and future economic growth, including pressing issues of innovation ecosystems, global competitiveness, sustainable development, and the role of policy in driving long-term economic success. To dig deeper and to celebrate his work, Professor Breznitz joined Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy in conversation on January 15, 2025.

How Canada’s middle class got shafted (Sept. 19, 2024)
How not to run a country: Government ineptitude and Canada’s economic malaise (Sept. 28, 2024)

We don’t need no education: How Canada’s broken university system holds us back (Oct. 4, 2024)
To fix Canada’s economic problems, we need a real strategy (Oct. 12, 2024)
As we build a vision of Canada, let’s make sure it has more Canada in it (Oct. 19, 2024)

Dan Breznitz has been elected as a University Professor of the University of Toronto, and is the Munk Chair of Innovation Studies at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy with a cross-appointment in the Department of Political Science of the University of Toronto, where he is also the Co-Director of the Innovation Policy Lab and a Senior Fellow of Massey College. In addition, he is a Fellow of the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) where he co-founded and co-directs the program on Innovation, Equity and the Future of Prosperity.

RESEARCH

The Uneven Heartland: A Look at Household Wealth in the Midwest and Southeast

Ana Hernández Kent, Tom Kemeny, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
This paper is co-authored by IPL Affiliated Faculty member Tom Kemeny. Understanding household wealth trends is important for getting a pulse on the economic health and stability of a community. Wealth can be used to invest in oneself and one’s family, meet future needs, provide access to opportunities, and cushion the impact of unexpected financial shocks. Wealth provides a more complete picture of financial well-being than income alone, but until recently, household wealth estimates have been available at only a national level. Having estimates of local wealth enables communities and organizations to place resources to build financial stability where they are most needed.The authors used the publicly available files from the Geographic Wealth Inequality Database, or GEOWEALTH-US, to look at local wealth estimates. Using those estimates, they found that there are pockets of both prosperity and financial insecurity within communities. High- and low-wealth areas can exist within a few miles. Further, significant and rising wealth inequality exists. This blog post focuses on seven states: Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee. All of Arkansas and portions of the other states make up the Eighth Federal Reserve District.

Leading From Below: Turning Greater Sudbury into an Export Hub of Mining Innovation and Sustained Prosperity

Dan Breznitz, Scott McKnight, and Marte Vroom
This white paper is co-authored by IPL Co-Director Dan Breznitz, IPL Research Associate Scott McKnight, and IPL Research Trainee & PhD student Marte Vroom. The paper attempts to address several pressing matters. What can be done in, and by, SMEs, government, and supporting institutions in Sudbury to amplify the growth of established mining supply and service companies as well as to spur the creation of new ones, while also keeping their ownership in Sudburian hands? What measures can be taken to ensure Sudburians gain well-paid and safe employment? Finally, how can local institutions—governmental, education and non-profit—stay relevant in fostering this continued growth and sharing this prosperity? In answering those questions, this white paper puts forth the ambitious goal of Greater Sudbury becoming a leading export hub for hard-rock mining solutions, equipment, and knowhow.

Editor's Pick

Canada: A Trusted Partner in Securing North America’s Industrial and Energy Future

Accelerate
This post summarizes Canada's contribution to the North American next generation automotive supply chain. The post includes statics on overall trade, critical mineral supply, as well as specific contributions to ten automotive producing US states. Canada supplies $40 billion annually in critical minerals, including nickel, lithium, and cobalt, essential for energy and defense sectors. Canada is the fifth largest nickel producer in the world and in 2023, 40% of Canada’s nickel output was exported to the U.S. Canada’s lithium and rare earth reserves are among the world’s largest, with the potential of reducing – and potentially eliminating - U.S. reliance on China. Half of Canadian auto parts—valued at $11 billion—are shipped to U.S. hubs, supporting American workers.

Cities & Regions

Recent Research: Regionalism enhances productivity and innovation

Jerry Coughter, SSTI
This post summaries two recent studies on the relationship between regionalism and productivity and innovation. Regional cooperation on economic development is believed to stimulate growth in various ways, including increased trade, enhanced movement of technologies from lab to market, and improved resource allocation. The post notes that US "Federal support for innovation-driven growth has increasingly forced applicants to take integrated regional approaches." However, empirical evidence on the specific impacts of such cooperation is scant. New research from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics seeks to address this gap by investigating the interplay between regional cooperation and integration (RCI) and two key economic outcomes: labor productivity and firm-level innovation. 

Regional Productivity Agenda: A guide to the productivity performance of the English regions and devolved nations

The Productivity Institute
This report builds on the work of The Productivity Institute’s eight Productivity Forums across the UK. After their initial assessments in 2020 and 2021, each Forum has recently revisited the state of productivity performance at sub-regional, regional, and devolved nation levels. The research, which is summarised in this volume, also provides in-depth analysis of key areas of pro-productivity policies at the regional level, as described above. Each contribution in this volume offers region-specific insights and policy recommendations, highlighting the unique economic, social, and governance characteristics of each area. While productivity is inherently place-based and varies significantly across regions, several themes emerge as the foundational elements for a regional agenda on pro-productivity policies.

Statistics

Right Brain, Left Brain, AI Brain: AI’s impact on jobs and skill demand in Canada’s workforce

The Dais
Will AI replace workers? This question often brings a great deal of anxiety—it’s too early to predict how Canada’s workforce will be impacted by AI and to what degree. What’s clear is that the use of AI in the workplace is growing. The first study of its kind in Canada, this study uses an analytical framework that allows the authors to categorize occupations in Canada along two measures: one that looks at the level to which occupations are exposed to artificial intelligence (an “exposure” measure) and another that looks at the potential for AI to assist workers in an occupation (a “complementarity” measure). Approximately half of all occupations are “high-exposure”, and half are low “low-exposure”. Similarly, around half of all occupations are “high-complementarity”, and around half are “low-complementarity”.

Cyclic Materials, Ionomr Innovations, Summit Nanotech among Canadian returnees to the 2025 Global Cleantech 100

Alex Riehl, BetaKit
This article summarizes the recent The Global Cleantech 100 report. Developed by San Francisco-based research and consulting firm Cleantech Group, the report showcases private cleantech companies globally that are predicted by a panel of experts to make a substantial impact on the market in the next five to 10 years. This is the first year Canada has had fewer than 10 companies on the list since 2015.
 

Innovation Policy

Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism

Dan Ciuriak, Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); C.D. Howe Institute; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH
The 2016 election of Donald J. Trump marked a profound shift in U.S. trade policy, building on populist critiques of globalization and structural trade imbalances. This movement has been powerfully reinforced by the 2024 re-election of Trump which promises an “America First” trade policy that channels these critiques. This paper seeks to tease out of the writings of the main proponents the intellectual framework for "populist trade economics", the focus of which is systemic merchandise trade imbalances, critiques of the US dollar's international role and the industrial policies of trade surplus nations as fundamental drivers of these imbalances, and a causal link running from these imbalances through the decline of manufacturing in the United States to a litany of social ills plaguing America. The paper critically evaluates the empirical basis for these claims and the potential efficacy of proposed remedies, such as tariffs, managed trade, and adjustments to capital flows through securities transactions taxes. It concludes that populist trade policy prescriptions are theoretically inappropriate for the modern global economy, incapable of achieving the first-order objectives of rebalancing manufacturing trade, internally inconsistent, and in some cases politically infeasible. Moreover, they do not address the underlying political economy drivers of populism, namely soaring income inequality and the weakening of the social safety net. The trade wars and economic disruption portended by action on the populist trade policy agenda will not help on these fronts and could undermine the ability to implement the political economy reforms needed to respond to the age of data and AI. Also see this recent article by the author.

CCI Launches The Canadian SHIELD Institute: A New Policy Institute Advancing Prosperity and Renewal

Council of Canadian Innovators
The Canadian SHIELD Institute is being established to focus on Securing Homegrown Innovation, Economic Leadership, and Defence. The organization is supported by an initial $10 million donation from Jim Balsillie, CCI Co-Founder and Chair. The Canadian SHIELD Institute will work with other industry leaders, visionaries, and philanthropists to scale up the organization and ensure its long-term impact on Canada’s prosperity and resilience.

Mend It, Don’t End It: It’s Time to Reset Clean Energy Policy by Focusing on Price/Performance Parity (P3)

Robin Gaster, ITIF
This report asserts that "The Trump administration and Congress have a golden opportunity to put clean energy policy on a new, more viable track by adopting an innovation-based strategy to spur technologies that can compete with fossil fuels on both price and performance." Instead of overcorrecting by rejecting clean energy or ignoring climate change, policymakers should adopt an innovation-driven strategy for spurring new technologies that can compete with fossil fuels on price and performance. Price/performance parity (P3) should be the focal point for U.S. clean energy policy. But markets alone cannot deliver new, competitive technologies. Government has a key role to play across the entire span of technology development and deployment. The path forward is to cut unnecessary or misdirected incentives and mandates, then redeploy resources to a more cost-effective clean energy innovation strategy.

AI Opportunities Action Plan

UK Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology
This report was written by Matt Clifford and was commissioned by the UK Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology. The document lays out an AI Opportunities Action Plan for the British government. The plan sets a pathway to "ramping up AI adoption across the UK to boost economic growth, provide jobs for the future and improve people's everyday lives."

Hard truth: Climate startups developing hard-tech solutions face a formidable funding gap

MaRS
Global demand for climate technology is skyrocketing; in 2023, the sector was estimated to be worth about U.S.$1.8 trillion, up 23 percent from the year prior. This strong market potential poses two key questions: Why do Canadian hard-tech ventures face such a formidable funding gap? And what solutions could help reverse this shortfall? In this report, MaRS surveyed 52 cleantech ventures and conducted in-depth interviews with founders and investors to explore the underlying issues causing this funding gap, the impact this has on startups’ growth plans and what solutions could help reverse this shortfall.

Policy Digest

An EU Compass to regain competitiveness and secure sustainable prosperity

The European Commission
The European Commission's Competitiveness Compass "sets a path for Europe to become the place where future technologies, services, and clean products are invented, manufactured, and put on the market, while being the first continent to become climate neutral." On 27 November 2024, President von der Leyen announced a Competitiveness Compass as the first major initiative of the Commission in this mandate, building on the Draghi report and providing the framework for the Commission's work on competitiveness in this mandate.

Three core areas for action: innovation, decarbonisation and security

The Draghi Report identified three transformational imperatives to boost competitiveness, and the Compass sets out an approach and a selection of flagship measures to translate each of these imperatives into reality:

1) Closing the innovation gap: The EU must reignite its innovation engine. We want to create a habitat for young innovative start-ups, promote industrial leadership in high growth sectors based on deep technologies and promote the diffusion of technologies across established companies and SMEs. In this respect, the Commission will propose ‘AI Gigafactories' and ‘Apply AI' initiatives to drive development and industrial adoption of AI in key sectors. It will table action plans for advanced materials, quantum, biotech, robotics and space technologies. A dedicated EU Start-up and Scale-up Strategy will address the obstacles that are preventing new companies from emerging and scaling up. A proposal for a 28th legal regime will simplify applicable rules, including relevant aspects of corporate law, insolvency, labour and tax law, and reduce the costs of failure. This will make it possible for innovative companies to benefit from one single set of rules wherever they invest and operate in the Single Market.

2) A joint roadmap for decarbonisation and competitiveness: The Compass identifies high and volatile energy prices as a key challenge and sets out areas for intervention to facilitate access to clean, affordable energy. The upcoming Clean Industrial Deal will set out a competitiveness-driven approach to decarbonisation, aimed at securing the EU as an attractive location for manufacturing, including for energy intensive industries, and promoting clean tech and new circular business models. An Affordable Energy Action Plan will help bring down energy prices and costs, while an Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act will extend accelerated permitting to sectors in transition. In addition, the Compass foresees tailor-made action plans for energy intensive sectors, such as steel, metals, and chemicals, sectors which are the backbone of the European manufacturing system, but are the most vulnerable in this phase of the transition.

3) Reducing excessive dependencies and increasing security. The EU's ability to diversify and reduce dependencies will hinge on effective partnerships. The EU already has the largest and fastest growing network of trade agreements in the world covering 76 countries that account for almost half of the EU's trade. To keep diversifying and strengthening our supply chains, the Compass refers to a new range of Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships to help secure supply of raw materials, clean energy, sustainable transport fuels, and clean tech from across the world. Within the internal market, the review of the Public Procurement rules will allow for the introduction of a European preference in public procurement for critical sectors and technologies.

Five horizontal enablers for competitiveness

The three pillars are complemented by five horizontal enablers, which are essential to underpin competitiveness across all sectors:

1) Simplification: This enabler aims at reducing drastically the regulatory and administrative burden. It also involves a systematic effort to make procedures for accessing EU funds and getting EU administrative decisions simpler, faster, and lighter. The upcoming Omnibus proposal will simplify sustainability reporting, due diligence, and taxonomy. Furthermore, the Commission will facilitate doing business for thousands of small mid-cap companies. The Compass sets a target of cutting by at least 25% the administrative burden for firms and by at least 35% for SMEs.

2) Lowering barriers to the Single Market: For 30 years, the Single Market has been Europe's tried and tested engine for competitiveness. To improve its functioning across all industries, a Horizontal Single Market Strategy will modernise the governance framework, removing intra-EU barriers and preventing the creation of new ones. In addition, the Commission will take the opportunity to make standard-setting processes faster and more accessible, in particular for SMEs and start-ups.

3) Financing competitiveness. The EU lacks an efficient capital market that turns savings into investments. The Commission will present a European Savings and Investments Union to create new savings and investment products, provide incentives for risk capital, and ensure investments flow seamlessly across the EU. A refocused EU budget will streamline access to EU funds in line with EU priorities. 

4) Promoting skills and quality jobs. The foundation of Europe's competitiveness is its people. To ensure a good match between skills and labour market demands, the Commission will present an initiative to build a Union of Skills focusing on investment, adult and lifelong learning, future-proof skills creation, skill retention, fair mobility, attracting and integrating qualified talent from abroad and the recognition of different types of training to enable people to work across our Union.

5) Better coordination of policies at EU and national level. The Commission will introduce a Competitiveness Coordination Tool, which will work with Member States to ensure implementation at EU and national level of shared EU policy objectives, identify cross-border projects of European interest, and pursue related reforms and investments. In the next Multiannual Financial Framework, a Competitiveness Fund will replace multiple existing EU financial instruments with similar objectives, providing financial support to the implementation of actions under the Competitiveness Coordination Tool.

Events

OPPORTUNITIES

Derrick Rossi Innovation Fund

The University of Toronto (U of T) Innovations & Partnerships Office (IPO) is hosting a call for applications for the Derrick Rossi Innovation Fund, which supports proof-of-concept research projects focused on accelerating the implementation and/or commercialization of high potential, cutting-edge research, with the promise of significant socio-economic impacts. The fund provides up to $300,000 over two years. A Notice of Intent (NOI) is due on February 10, 2025 and the application deadline is March 17, 2025.  

Call for application for a fellowship for the project “Science technology relationships in the development of AI in the health sector”

The application for this 
University of Torino position must be submitted exclusively online, using the form available here: https://forms.gle/NHKw4Nnhta7Mew4BA .Applicants are advised that once they receive the application registration form via email, they must complete the transmission by printing the said email, signing it and transmitting the scan to the following address: incarichi.cle@unito.it.

Duration: 18 months. The total amount of the grant is € 34,200.00 and is paid in monthly installments (€ 1,900.00 per month after tax).  The research activity consists of:
- Research on the diffusion of AI and robotics technologies within hospitals.
- Creation and analysis of comparative data at regional and national levels.
- Production of two articles to be submitted to international scientific journals.

EVENTS

 6th International ZEW Conference on the Dynamics of Entrepreneurship (CoDE) 

October 9-10, 2025, Mannheim
The aim of this conference is to discuss recent contributions to entrepreneurial research. It focusses on the formation, growth and exit of young firms linked to innovation, environmental sustainability, or entrepreneurial finance. The conference also addresses the challenges and opportunities of entrepreneurship policies. You are welcome to participate in the conference and contribute theoretical, empirical and/or policy-oriented papers on all areas of entrepreneurship research. Interested researchers are invited to submit a paper (or extended abstracts of at least 4,000 words are also welcome) to entrepreneurship2025@zew.de. Submission deadline: 31 May 2025

The 10th Atlanta Conference on Science and Innovation Policy

May 14-16, 2025, Georgia Institute of Technology
Hosted by Georgia Tech, the Atlanta Conference provides a forum to present and discuss high quality empirical research by about 300 scholars representing more than 30 countries that focus on the challenges and trends associated with science and innovation policy and processes. Abstracts Due: Nov. 17, 2024.

7th Global Conference on Economic Geography

June 4-8, 2025, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
The GCEG is the largest international conference dedicated to Economic Geography. Cutting-edge research concerning the sources and drivers of socio-economic change, and an assessment of the economic geography of places in a multi-scalar and multi-dimensional context.

SASE 2025 Annual Conference

9-12 July 2025, Palais des Congrès, Montréal, Québec

The conference's theme is 'Inclusive Solidarities: Reimagining Boundaries in Divided Times.'

DRUID25

Toronto, June 25-27, Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Since 1996, DRUID has become one of the world's premier academic conferences on innovation and the dynamics of structural, institutional and geographic change. DRUID is proud to invite senior and junior scholars to participate and contribute with a paper to DRUID25, hosted by Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto. Presenting distinguished plenary speakers, a range of parallel paper sessions, and an attractive social program, the conference aims at mapping theoretical, empirical and methodological advances, contributing novel insights, and help identifying scholarly positions, divisions, and common grounds in current scientific controversies within the field. Submission deadline:  March 1

Twin Transition, Ecosystems, and Disruptive Innovation

October 23rd-24th 2025, Venice School of Management - Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, San Giobbe - Economic Campus.
The 19th edition of Regional Innovation Policies Conference will take place in Venice, Italy.

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This newsletter is prepared by Travis Southin.
Project manager is David A. Wolfe