Event Report: China’s Growing Power and A New Era for the US-Japan Alliance

On January 27th from 7:00pm-8:30pm (EST)/ January 28th 9:00am-10:30am (JST) an exciting panel of experts of Japanese, Chinese, and American politics and foreign relations came together in an event to discuss “China’s Growing Power and A New Era for the US-Japan Alliance.” Panelists reflected on both historical developments of the US-Japan alliance and current Chinese political developments that may alter the mechanics of the alliance. This event was graciously co-sponsored by the Initiative for Global Security at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College and moderated by Professor Phillip Lipscy, Director for the Centre for the Study of Global Japan.

The panel’s discussion revolved around core themes and questions presented by Lipscy that include “What are the security challenges the U.S and Japan face in the Asia-Pacific region today and into the future?”, “What policy instruments, whether they be military, technological, economic, or political, do the allies need to prioritize in order to address these challenges?” in addition to “What are the areas of strengths in the U.S-Japan alliance and what areas need further attention?”

The first panelist was Professor Satoru Mori from the Faculty of Law and Department of Global Politics from Hosei University located in Tokyo, Japan. Mori began the discussion by outlining three major challenges he believes the U.S-Japan alliance faces, including deterring China from overturning the geopolitical status quo by means of force, promoting a free and open economical order in the Indo-Pacific region, and managing crises and stabilizing relations with China. Mori stated that he believed the current alliance is strong by explaining how bilateral cooperation between the U.S and Japan has become closer and more robust in recent years, detailing a combined operation plan in response to a Taiwan contingency as evidence of this shift. He also pointed to the sector of defense technology as an area of further collaboration, citing a recent statement made by the U.S-Japan Security Consultative Committee in which both nations pledged bilateral investment into machine learning, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing in order to maintain a technological defensive edge over potential aggressors. Mori pointed to the Consultative Committee as providing invaluable predictability compared to that of a unilateral national response, with these developments over the years as evidence of a U.S-Japan alliance that is able to strategically adapt when faced with the multifaceted challenges posed by a growing China.

The second panelist was Professor Andrew Oros from the Department of Political Science and International Studies from Washington College located in Chestertown, Maryland. Oros started his insight by discussing looming “gray zone threats” that the U.S-Japan alliance faces, such as Chinese military incursions that have fallen short of total invasion by example of the Senkaku Islands that are formally administered by Japan, yet claimed by China. A second gray zone threat can be illustrated by the increased escalation of cyber-attacks that have compromised both military and civilian infrastructure as well as putting the individual privacy of alliance members in jeopardy. Oros pointed to these developments as evidence of a new era the U.S-Japan alliance finds themselves facing, with his own research detailing how the unprecedented aging of populations belonging to the world’s major military powers is affecting how competitions of power actualize when looking at a long-term defense framework. Oros noted that this trend is still unfolding, yet Asia being at the leading edge of this transformation may provide key insights into how changing demographics affect political decision making and foreign policy maneuvers in the region, with a heightened importance placed on the United States to keep up and adapt to these security trends.

The third panelist was Professor Takako Hikotani from the International Centre from Gakushuin University located in Tokyo, Japan. Hikotani focused her discussion of the U.S-Japan alliance in the broader context of U.S policy, and how domestic Japanese politics and public opinion also play a key role in the further development of the alliance. Hikotani described Japan as a cornerstone for U.S policy in the Asia-Pacific region, further discussing the recent message presented by the American Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, in which the Ambassador stated that what the U.S and Japan do together in partnership over the next three years will decide the posture of the two nations for the next thirty years. Hikotani described how the rise of China over the past few years is understood to the Japanese public in the prism of how strong the U.S-Japan alliance is in regards to security measures and defense capability. She explained how recent American military occurrences, like the nation’s departure from Afghanistan, fractured how trustworthy the Japanese public considers the U.S to be, however the belief in the credibility of the U.S-Japan alliance remains generally strong. Hikotani closed by noting that the next year is an important one in regards to the upcoming Quad Summit in Tokyo in the spring of 2022, the Japanese Upper House elections in July 2022, and Japan hosting the G7 summit in 2023- all events that will further test the strength and resilience of the U.S-Japan alliance moving forward.

Professor Jennifer Lind from the Government Department at Dartmouth College located in Hanover, New Hampshire delivered the closing remarks before the panel started a Q & A session. Lind noted the importance of the alliance’s need to have a sustained policy and approach to China’s rising power in order to ensure key security goals remain intact. In light of Chinese efforts to build regional dominance through military and economic means, Lind closed by discussing how the upcoming challenges the U.S-Japan alliance faces are important in determining the future direction of the alliance, with flexibility and adaptability being key requirements needed to keep this relationship strong.

Following the panel discussion, there was a lively question and answer period with viewers from around the globe. Questions the panelists answered involved ideas surrounding the U.S-Japanese military response a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would incur, how the COVID-19 pandemic altered foreign policy relations in the Asia-Pacific region, and how technological cooperation between the U.S and Japan could impact the research and development of defense technologies and capabilities.

We would like to thank the panel for their brilliant political analysis, as well as the virtual audience that was in attendance for an engaged Q&A session.