Event Report: The Geoeconomics of the Second Trump Presidency
On February 11, 2025, the Centre for the Study of Global Japan collaborated with the Centre for Japan Research at the University of British Columbia to host an online panel discussing the geoeconomic effects of the second Trump presidency. The panel featured former US trade official Michael Beeman, Jonathan Berkshire Miller from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Professor Kristin Vekasi from the University of Maine, and Professor Yves Tiberghien from the University of British Columbia. The panel was moderated by Phillip Lipscy from the University of Toronto.
The event began with opening remarks from Professor Lipscy, who emphasized the importance of understanding the priorities of the new Trump administration amidst considerable uncertainty. Jonathan Berkshire Miller followed Lipscy’s remarks to discuss the effects of the new Trump presidency on Canadians. He emphasized the value in remaining calm, noting how geography defines geopolitical relationships differently. Canada and the United States have maintained a strong relationship in part due to their geographical proximity and have successfully cooperated with one another. During the previous Trump administration, tariffs were threatened but removed after a year, illustrating the possibility for resolution. Miller also noted that both Canada and the US are the “losers” of the tariff measures. He emphasized that the only “winners” of the conflict are the adversaries of both nations, such as Russia and China.
Following Miller was Professor Kristin Vekasi, who discussed the relationship between the US and Japan under the new Trump administration. She noted that there have been both continuities as well as structural breaks. Past points of tension have been revived with the potential acquisition of US Steel by Nippon Steel. Despite this, there have been successful continuities as well. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s visit to Washington DC helped maintain some status quo continuities, such as security guarantees and meetings between the defense ministers and foreign ministers. Vekasi also addressed Japan's strategy of diversifying its supply chains, especially with increased collaboration with China, Mexico, and Canada, amidst growing US protectionism and unilateral trade policies. She noted potential challenges Japan faces due to Trump’s focus on trade, immigration, and nuclear exports, which could strain Japan's economic and security relationships.
Next, Professor Yves Tiberghien discussed the broader global implications of Trump’s second presidency. Tiberghien pointed out that Trump’s policies pose threats to global stability, particularly through increased risk and weakened soft power. He identified two concurrent industrial revolutions: AI and green technology, highlighting that while the US might push AI development, it is stepping back from global green tech leadership. He also noted that despite the global impact, major powers such as China, Russia, and Japan remain relatively unaffected in the short term, but the lack of a coherent US strategy leaves many countries uncertain.
Michael Beeman focused on the practical aspects of the new administration's agenda. He emphasized continuity in geopolitical objectives but highlighted operational readiness and the mandate to deliver on campaign promises as key differences. Beeman identified trade as a primary focus, predicting increased tariff rates and questioning the future relevance of traditional trade agreements. He also emphasized the importance of guardrails within the US, such as Congress and international alliances in mitigating potential unilateral disruptions from the administration.
The panel concluded with a Q&A session, where panelists discussed the potential for middle powers like Japan and Canada to take on greater leadership in maintaining the global economic and security order. We would like to thank the panelists for their informative insights, the Centre for Japan Research at the University of British Columbia, and our global audience for their engagement during our question and answer session.
If you missed the event and would like to watch it, the recording can be found here. All CSGJ event recordings can be found on our Recorded Events page.
