Event Report: Japanese Politics at a Crucial Transition Point: From Kishida to Ishiba: Where is Japan Heading?
On October 17, 2024, from 8:00 to 9:30 PM EST, the Centre for the Study of Global Japan (CSGJ) and the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Japanese Research (CJR) co-hosted a webinar titled “Japanese Politics at a Crucial Transition Point: From Kishida to Ishiba: Where is Japan Heading?”. This virtual event brought together a distinguished panel of experts to reflect on the Kishida administration, examine the implications of Prime Minister Ishiba’s recent election, and explore the upcoming general election as a pivotal moment for Japanese politics. The discussion was moderated by Dr. Yves Tiberghien and Mioko Umemura from CJR.
The webinar began with an analysis by Dr. Kenneth McElwain, Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Tokyo, who evaluated the prospects for government turnover in the October 27 general election. Drawing on polling data, Dr. McElwain noted the declining popularity of the LDP-Komeito coalition and the relatively low approval ratings of Prime Minister Ishiba compared to his predecessor, Kishida. He highlighted the opposition’s lack of coordination, with multiple candidates competing in the same districts, which fragments the anti-LDP vote. Dr. McElwain also discussed the impact of redistricting affecting nearly half of all districts, potentially reducing voter turnout and undermining accountability. He concluded that unless opposition parties mobilize independent voters effectively, the LDP is likely to maintain its majority.
Next, Dr. Rieko Kage, Professor of Political Science at the University of Tokyo, addressed gender representation in Japanese politics. Despite some efforts under Kishida, Japan ranks 163rd globally in female parliamentary representation. Dr. Kage examined the issue from both demand-side factors, such as public opinion, and supply-side factors, like party-level candidate nominations. Her findings showed little voter bias against female candidates but emphasized the critical role of political parties, particularly the LDP, in nominating more women in competitive districts.
Dr. Harutaka Takenaka, Professor of Political Science at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, offered insights into the Kishida administration’s achievements and speculated on Ishiba’s leadership. He highlighted Kishida’s successes in foreign security policy, including his commitment to doubling Japan's defense budget, promoting a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), and strengthening ties with Korea, the US, and the Philippines. Despite these achievements, Kishida struggled with public communication, contributing to low approval ratings. Dr. Takenaka predicted that Ishiba’s administration would continue many of Kishida’s policies while introducing a stronger focus on bottom-up economic initiatives.
Dr. Kay Shimizu, Professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh, evaluated Kishida’s economic policies and the challenges facing Ishiba’s administration. While Kishida strengthened global economic ties, domestic policies fell short, failing to address inflation or provide substantial support to small businesses. Promises of wealth redistribution under “New Capitalism” largely failed to materialize, with temporary measures like tax cuts proving insufficient. Dr. Shimizu expressed concern over the ambiguity of Ishiba’s economic plans, noting the lack of concrete solutions for long-term issues such as Japan’s aging population and gender-based wage disparities.
The final speaker, Dr. Philip Lipscy, Director of the Centre for the Study of Global Japan and Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, discussed Japan’s evolving foreign policy. He credited the Abe administration for laying the foundation with initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership and FOIP, which Kishida expanded with measures for defense and supply chain resilience. Dr. Lipscy anticipated continuity under Ishiba but cautioned that Ishiba’s controversial views could introduce unexpected shifts. Regardless of election outcomes, Japan’s foreign policy is expected to remain on a stable trajectory.
The event concluded with a dynamic Q&A session, where panelists fielded questions from Dr. Tiberghien and audience members worldwide. Topics included the implications of an LDP victory, challenges with Kishida’s “New Capitalism,” Japan’s perspective on the ongoing US elections, and potential changes to immigration policy under Ishiba.
We extend our heartfelt thanks to the panelists for their insights and to the global audience for their participation. A recording of the webinar can be accessed here.
