Event Report: “Navigating the Crossroads: Canada’s 2025 Election and Trump 2.0: Implications for North America and Beyond”
On February 13th from 5:00 to 8:00 PM EST, the Centre for the Study of Global Japan co-hosted a panel discussion with The Japan Society and Bennet Jones LLP on the implications of the second Trump presidency and the upcoming 2025 Canadian federal election. This event was moderated by George W. H. Reid, trade lawyer and Partner at Bennet Jones LLP, with speakers Phillip Lipscy, Professor of Political Science at the University of Toronto, and David A. Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science at the University of Waterloo. Opening remarks were delivered by Takeshi Matsunaga, Consul-General of Japan in Toronto.
The panel discussion began with the topic of President Trump’s tariff threats, specifically how allies such as Canada and Japan can manage their relationship with the United States. Welch outlined the respective diplomatic strategies of Japan and Canada. Japan has engaged in high-level personal diplomacy, with the prime minister interacting directly with Trump. Meanwhile, Canada has a multifaceted approach which mobilises potential allies at all levels within the U.S. government, cultivating ties with state governors, corporations, and members of Congress. Welch argued that both countries have done well with these models and expects them to continue doing so during the second Trump administration. Lipscy echoed this analysis, noting that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strategy during the first Trump presidency focused on flattery and repeated engagement at the highest level. In addition, he highlighted Japan’s role in supporting the international order by reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership and proposing the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy. He also noted that Trump’s withdrawal from international institutions could provide advantages to U.S. adversaries like China.
The second part of the discussion explored the U.S.–China rivalry and its implications for prosperity and security in the region. Lipscy noted that there is a bipartisan consensus in the U.S. that views China as the most significant threat to its national interests. However, he questioned whether Trump is instinctively anti-China, suggesting that he may shift course if presented with a compelling deal. Regarding Japan, Welch emphasised that China remains a key regional issue necessitating strong security cooperation with the United States. He also cautioned that the instability of the Trump presidency could provide an opportunity for Beijing to actively pursue its objectives over Taiwan.
Lastly, the panelists shared their insights and predictions regarding the upcoming Canadian federal election and its potential impact on Canada–U.S. relations. Welch projected that Mark Carney would secure the Liberal Party leadership but anticipated a victory for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party in the general election. He suggested that Poilievre’s alignment with Trump’s populist rhetoric could facilitate personal ties with Trump, but that Canada’s traditional multi-level diplomatic approach would likely remain constant. Lipscy noted that while Carney’s experience is an asset, it makes him susceptible to populist critiques, adding to the uncertainty of the election outcome. Finally, he noted that instability in the U.S. also creates opportunities for Canada, such as the potential to attract top U.S. talent.
To conclude the event, there was a question-and-answer period by members of the audience. These included what Canada should do to prepare for a post-Trump era, as well as whether Trump is a turning point in the global political and economic order. We would like to extend our gratitude to the speakers for their pertinent insights, the Japan Society and Bennet Jones LLP for co-hosting and organising this event, and the in-person and virtual audience for their participation.
