The War in Ukraine and the Future of Central Asia

When we talk about the future of the region, it should be remembered that on the one hand, the region consists of five different states that can have their own future based on internal and external factors. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine for Central Asia will have the same serious consequences as the collapse of the USSR, which led to the construction of a new system of international relations, a change in the geopolitical balance, the emergence of new risks and threats, as well as new opportunities.

 

And when we talk about the future of Central Asia, our region has six important tasks and challenges.  

1.     Building a new model of relations with Russia.  

2.     Building a new geopolitical balance.  

3.     The third important task, reducing the risk of secondary sanctions  

4.     The Fourth task, to not be drawn into any military conflict. Including within the region.  

5.     The Fifth task, the region should be "Too important to be threatened" and "Too important to be lost" for all major geopolitical players.  

6.     The Sixth task, make lemonade from lemon. Use the eight "windows of opportunity".

 

 

Dossym Satpayev, Director of Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group, Board Member of Kazakhstan Council on International Relations, Board member of Kazakhstan Council on International Relations, political analyst at FORBES.KZ, and Co-Founder at the Alliance of Analytical organizations. Dr. Datpayev is a founder of Private Cultural and Educational Fund and Literary Project “Soyz”, and a co-founder of Kazakhstan literary award "Altyn Kalam." His monographs include “Deformation of the vertical in Kazakhstan. From anonymous empires to anti-lobbies”, Almaty, Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group, 2019; "Rules of survival in conditions of urban terrorism", Almaty: Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group, 2003; and "Political science in Kazakhstan. Prospects of discipline", Almaty: Kazakhstan Risks Assessment Group, 2002.