The winner of the 2023 Lionel Gelber Prize is Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise by Susan L. Shirk.
From the jury: "Overreach is a masterful analysis of the leading contemporary challenge in geopolitics by a long-time close observer of China. Shirk’s analysis of the vulnerability of the regime is provocative, plausible, and full of pragmatic potential for policymakers. She skillfully answers two critical questions for managing the “China problem”: how did we get here and where are we going? History feeds decision-making under her pen. Shirk conveys the way in which Chinese power moves in long arcs and is at the same time subject to the vagaries of personalities and “the dynamics of court.” She provides invaluable insights into the power dynamics that will shape outcomes and a sophisticated risk analysis of a relationship that will be at the heart of the critical issues shaping our future for decades and beyond."