Piercing the Fog of War: Tracking Russian Public Opinion via RDIT

In recent decades, public opinion researchers and policymakers have gained valuable insight into the attitudes and opinions of ordinary Russians thanks to regular tracking surveys conducted by polling organisations such as the Levada Center, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM), and FOM. However, since the onset of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, it has become increasingly difficult to attain reliable measurements due to sensitivity response bias, self-censorship, and changes in methodology. To overcome these difficulties, this paper presents novel measures using online search data from Google and Yandex, together with 2022- daily Russia tracking surveys conducted by RIWI using random domain intercept of web users. Our findings suggest spikes in critical attitudes and skepticism concerning the conduct of thge war in its first year, yet stabilization and civic withdrawal since the summer of 2023. Our results illustrate how political scientists can use online data to shine light on public opinion in difficult-to-survey contexts, and help to assess the dynamics of regime support in non-democratic countries.

 

Roberto Stefan Foa is Associate Professor in Politics and Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. He is Executive Committee Member of the World Values Survey, Co-Founder of the Centre for the Future of Democracy, and has served as adviser to the UK Cabinet Office, World Bank, United Nations and Council of Europe.