What Makes Ukraine Resilient in the Asymmetric War? Assessing Anticipatory Governance on the Local Level in Ukraine
The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 created many crises, such as massive internal displacement, destroyed critical infrastructure, military occupation, to name only few. Ukrainian society proved surprising resilience in the asymmetric war and the local authorities are contributing to this resilience significantly. In this seminar, I presented the research findings, conducted with the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe, and the Association of Ukrainian Cities, with focus on two questions: First, how local public authorities (LPA) contribute to the resilience in Ukraine under conditions of the war. We define resilience as the capacity of local authorities to adjust and provide public services during the war despite external shocks and threats. The underlying assumption is that anticipatory governance is a useful approach to reinforce and sustain resilience capacity of the local authorities in Ukraine. Thus, the second question is, what is the capacity of public authorities in Ukraine for anticipatory governance and what are opportunities and challenges to it. The analysis is based on three pillars of anticipatory governance – foresight, networks, and feedback loops, as well as considers the role digital technologies.
The study is based on the survey of communities in Ukraine in September 2022. The questionnaire has been informed by the previous interviews and a focus group with the representatives of local authorities (community and regional level) and representatives on the central level. The survey dataset consisted of 241 responses – it is 16% of all communities in Ukraine. Where possible, we compared the results with the findings of the 2021 baseline survey on open government.
The assessment of LPAs resilience in this survey confirms the widespread assumption that local self-government authorities in Ukraine are the backbone of the national resilience in crises arising from the war. The ongoing work of LPAs under high security threats ensured adequacy of public services to the current needs of citizens, as well as provided legitimate centers to manage crises and coordinate resources, in line with the local context. The findings indicate that networks – both with citizens, businesses, as well as with other communities in Ukraine and abroad, were crucial to withstand seven months of the war. In the same time, the survey indicated some weak spots in anticipatory governance practices that should be strengthened, especially with regards to vertical intragovernmental collaboration and feedback loops to increase flexibility of governance.
Speakers
Dr Oksana Huss is a researcher in the BIT-ACT research project at the University of Bologna, Italy and lecturer at the Anti-Corruption Research and Education Centre, Ukraine. Her areas of expertise cover (anti-)corruption and social movements, as well as open government and digital technologies. Oksana obtained her doctoral degree at the Institute for Development and Peace, Germany and held several research fellowships in Canada, France, Netherlands, and Sweden. She consulted international organizations, such as Council of Europe, EU, UNESCO and UNODC. Oksana is a co-founder of the Interdisciplinary Corruption Research Network and author of the book How Corruption and Anti-Corruption Policies Sustain Hybrid Regimes: Strategies of Political Domination under Ukraine’s Presidents in 1994-2014.