Bringing Politics Back In: The Neglected Explanation of the Oct. 7 Surprise Attack

Abstract

Civil-military relations are a neglected dimension in the explanation of surprise. I integrate the worldviews and political priorities of civilian leaders with the psychological processes and organizational pathologies within the military and intelligence agencies to explain the surprise of Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. In this case, psychological and organizational explanations reinforced one another, yet both missed the importance of political leaders in preventing surprise. The worldviews and political priorities of civilian leaders explain whether and when they challenge, discount, or ignore the warnings that they receive. I demonstrate that the political priorities of leaders amplified and reinforced the prevailing strategic concept when they were fully aligned but trumped estimates of a high probability of war when they were not. There are no technical or organizational fixes to the political roots of surprise. In this case, surprise can best be explained as a political as well as a psychological and organizational failure.