How to Improve Ontario Energy Forecasting

In March 2021, Ontario 360 convened a virtual roundtable of energy experts to discuss long-term energy system planning. This roundtable was in response to the government soliciting input on how to refocus the current energy planning process, with the stated goals to “promote transparency, accountability, and effectiveness of energy planning decision-making, increase investment certainty, and ensure the interests of ratepayers are protected.” While the roundtable discussion touched on many ideas related to integrated planning and the role of politicians and energy experts, participants also discussed the role of energy forecasting in the planning process and the desire for more robust and accurate forecasting as the basis for energy procurement.

This report examines ideas raised by a virtual roundtable of energy experts, providing a deeper analysis of how the Ontario government and the Independent Electricity System Operator make use of energy forecasting in their decision-making; and what insights can be learned from other sectors, models and jurisdictions.